A turn for the better

January 28, 2010

In developed countries, CO₂ emissions are headed lower.

Some negative trends are good news. In the U.S. and other developed countries, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions appear to have peaked and are expected to decline.

In fact, ExxonMobil expects that by 2030, CO₂ emissions in developed (OECD) countries will have fallen to levels not seen in almost 30 years.

Put another way, even as the U.S. economy expands through 2030, our emissions will be headed back to 1980 — a time when personal computers and cable TV were "new" technologies.

How will we curb emissions without sacrificing economic growth? One way is through advanced technology. Just as consumer technologies improve over the decades, so do the tools for solving our energy and environmental challenges.

For example, new technologies will allow us to be more energy-efficient in our homes, vehicles and businesses. In 2030, improved efficiency will not only have curbed energy demand significantly, but also reduced related CO₂ emissions by approximately 17 billion metric tons.

Equally important will be making greater use of cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas. More widespread use of natural gas to meet growing power-generation needs will play a significant role in curbing emissions through 2030.

Even with these positive steps, challenges remain. Fast-developing (non-OECD) countries, such as China and India, will drive a significant rise in global emissions over the next 20 years as citizens there strive to improve their living standards — even though their per-capita emissions will remain far below those in the U.S.

Turning the corner on CO₂ emissions globally will mean expanding and accelerating gains in efficiency and shifting to cleaner-burning fuels. Doing so will require billions of dollars in new investment and support for creating and deploying new technologies. 

But the projected drop in U.S. emissions shows that with the right combination of technology and fuels, meaningful reductions in emissions should be achievable. That’s one set of negative numbers that is actually good news for our country.