Natural gas supply and demand balance

Natural gas will meet a growing share of our energy needs through 2030. Given its abundance and properties as a clean-burning fuel, expanded use of natural gas in power generation can serve economic progress and help advance environmental goals as well.

Total natural gas demand in the United States and Europe will follow a similar pattern — dipping in the near term because of the recession, and then growing modestly through 2030. Growth averages about 0.8 percent per year. Asia-Pacific demand grows much more rapidly, at almost 4 percent per year, with demand more than doubling over the outlook period.

In terms of supply, an important development has been the expansion of unconventional natural gas — the result of recent improvements in technologies used to tap these hard-to-reach resources. This is particularly the case in the United States, where it is expected to satisfy more than 50 percent of demand by 2030. The growth in unconventional supplies will moderate the need for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in the United States in the short term.

In Europe, local natural gas production continues to decline, driving imports from about 45 percent of total supply in 2005 to about 70 percent in 2030. This shift will require growth in pipeline imports from Russia and Caspian countries as well as LNG.

In Asia Pacific, domestic natural gas production — unconventional in particular — continues to climb, but at a slower pace than demand. As a result, Asia Pacific will need to rely more heavily on gas imports, especially LNG, which will meet more than one-third of the region’s demand in 2030.